On June 9,
the Opinion page of the Wall Street
Journal published an article by Henry F. Cooper titled “North Korea Dreams
of Turning Out the Lights”. It discusses the possibility of an EMP
(electro-magnetic pulse) attack by North Korea, and makes the point that this
is a lot more likely than we might think/hope. Since the WSJ’s online version
is behind a pay wall, I can’t link the article here, but I’ll summarize some
key points and quote others.
- North Korea now probably has the ability to detonate a
nuclear weapon 40 miles above Seoul – in fact, “a recent North Korean
medium-range missile test that was widely reported to have exploded
midflight could in fact have been deliberately detonated at an altitude of
40 miles.”
- Such an attack on Seoul would “inflict catastrophic damage
on South Korea’s electric power grid, leading to a prolonged blackout that
could have deadly consequences.” Moreover, since the US has about 29,000
military personnel stationed in South Korea, plus more at sea nearby, such
an attack would make it very hard for the US to respond to North Korean
aggression (say, if North Korea were to invade the South after an EMP
attack – note this is my inference. It isn’t stated directly by the
author).
- In 2001, Congress established a commission to study this
danger. The chairman of the commission, William R. Graham, “noted that
several Russian generals told the commissioners in 2004 that the designs
for a ‘super EMP nuclear weapon’ had been transferred to North Korea.”
- An EMP attack using a nuclear warhead with a yield of “only”
10 to 20 kilotons could “inflict catastrophic damage to unhardened
electronics across hundreds of miles of surface territory.” This is the
range of yields that North Korea has already successfully tested. So there
would be no need for them to wait until they had produced a much more
powerful device.
- North Korea wouldn’t need to develop a long-range
ballistic missile in order to attack the US. For one thing, there is no
need for great accuracy – detonation almost anywhere over the US would
produce devastating effects. For another, there would be no “need to worry
about developing a reliable re-entry vehicle for their ballistic missiles”
(which would be required for a conventional nuclear strike).
- And there might be an even easier way to strike the US: According
to William Graham in a recent blog post, North Korea could launch a “short-range
missile off a freighter or submarine or by lofting a warhead to 30
kilometers burst height by balloon. Even a balloon-lofted warhead
detonated at 30 kilometers altitude could blackout the Eastern Grid that
supports most of the population and generates 75 percent of US
electricity. Moreover, an EMP attack could be made by a North Korean
satellite.”
The article
concludes “The US and South Korea should ensure their ballistic-missile
defenses are effective and harden their electric power grids against EMP
effects as soon as possible. The day of reckoning could come sooner than anyone
in either country thinks.”
Have a nice
day!
The views and opinions expressed here are my own and don’t
necessarily represent the views or opinions of Deloitte.
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