Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Rebecca Smith warned us, but we didn’t listen – and paid a big price. Now she’s gone.

Note: there are multiple links to Wall Street Journal articles in this post, most of which are behind a paywall. If you would like to read any of these articles, please email me and I’ll send you a PDF of them.

On July 23, 2018, the Wall Street Journal published an article[i] by a reporter named Rebecca Smith (whom I had never heard of at the time) titled “Russian Hackers Reach U.S. Utility Control Rooms, Homeland Security Officials Say”. The article described an online web presentation that had been given by Jonathan Homer of DHS that day. That presentation was repeated three more times within two weeks.

The first four paragraphs of the article were quite startling:

Hackers working for Russia claimed “hundreds of victims” last year in a giant and long-running campaign that put them inside the control rooms of U.S. electric utilities where they could have caused blackouts, federal officials said. They said the campaign likely is continuing.

The Russian hackers, who worked for a shadowy state-sponsored group previously identified as Dragonfly or Energetic Bear, broke into supposedly secure, “air-gapped” or isolated networks owned by utilities with relative ease by first penetrating the networks of key vendors who had trusted relationships with the power companies, said officials at the Department of Homeland Security.

“They got to the point where they could have thrown switches” and disrupted power flows, said Jonathan Homer, chief of industrial-control-system analysis for DHS.

DHS has been warning utility executives with security clearances about the Russian group’s threat to critical infrastructure since 2014. But the briefing on Monday was the first time that DHS has given out information in an unclassified setting with so much detail. It continues to withhold the names of victims, but it now says there were hundreds of victims, not a few dozen, as had been stated previously.

The article went on to describe how the attackers fairly easily penetrated vendors to the utility industry and points out that “It was a relatively easy process, in many cases, for them to steal credentials from vendors and gain direct access to utility networks.” While the article makes it abundantly clear that attackers penetrated the control networks (“control rooms”, presumably meaning Control Centers) of electric utilities, it isn’t completely clear that the “hundreds of victims” were all utilities or whether some of them were vendors. In any case, it does seem that many utility control networks were penetrated and that DHS thought the attackers were in a position to cause outages if they wanted to.

The next day, Tuesday July 23, Rebecca’s article appeared in the WSJ’s print edition. It is no exaggeration to say that it caused a firestorm of reactions in the media, both in the US and abroad; there was general agreement that Rebecca had described a huge threat to US national security. My initial reaction was in a post on Wednesday. I expressed skepticism about the article, although my main point was that these attacks showed the vital importance of CIP-013, the supply chain security standard that FERC had ordered in 2016. By that time, it had been drafted and approved by NERC, but not yet by FERC.

But there was another reaction on Wednesday. I described it in my post on Thursday: “I learned today, from an article on Power Magazine’s web site, and confirmed with a source who knew the contents of Congressional briefings by DHS, that the true number of assets compromised was…. envelope, please….one. And by the way, it was a very insignificant generating plant whose loss would have no impact on the grid.”

This was interesting. It seems that DHS was suddenly trying to take back the presentation they had just given on Monday. However, despite their efforts, the same presentation was repeated unchanged by Mr. Homer once that week and twice the following week. I won’t go through everything that happened in the next few weeks, but I will point out that DHS, now that they had walked back what Homer said once, decided that wasn’t enough.

The next week, DHS held a meeting in New York, attended by Vice President Pence, Secretary Nielsen of DHS, Secretary of Energy Perry, CEO Tom Fanning of Southern Company, and Chris Krebs of DHS (a year before he put together CISA). In that meeting, Mr. Krebs went one better than the story DHS had put out the previous week: He said it wasn’t even an insignificant generating plant that was compromised. It was just two wind turbines!

Despite this contradiction, I believed the general tenor of both the DHS and Krebs statements was true. On August 7, I published this post. It asserted that either Jonathan Homer had been lying in his presentation, or Rebecca had completely misunderstood what he was talking about. In the post, I made some unfair, and – frankly - misogynistic, statements about Rebecca that I regret to this day. My next two posts on this topic continued to drink the DHS Kool-Aid and deprecate what Rebecca had written.

However, on September 4 I changed my tune in this post. I did this partly because the contradictions in the DHS story had become impossible to reconcile. However, the main reason I changed my position was that Rebecca had emailed me the previous Friday (it turns out she had been a longtime reader of my blog). I apologized to her for my statements in the August 7 post and she accepted my apology. Being one of the two WSJ reporters that disclosed the Enron scandal and having written the definitive book on Enron’s collapse (of which her reporting was one of the main causes), I imagine she’d seen a lot worse statements written about her. I described what she said on the phone in my September 4 post, although she wouldn’t let me reveal her name.

In that call, Rebecca made it clear that she didn’t misunderstand Jonathan Homer’s statements (in fact, she had listened to the two repeat webinars that Homer presented the following week. She said all three webinars were close to identical, although the one she wrote about in her article had some technical problems). In the post, I paraphrased what she said:

…the people at DHS who made the statements at the briefings…really meant what they were trying to say (notwithstanding the fact that they confused control centers with control rooms): that the Russians had penetrated more than one utility control center, where they actually could control the flow of power on the grid itself. That meant to me that they had penetrated the Energy Management System (EMS). This system forms the core of the mission of most electric utilities, since it allows them to control power flows over their network.

The same day that I talked with Rebecca, a well-respected CIP auditor (who also had to remain anonymous) pointed out to me that a screen shot, that was captured by the Russian attackers and displayed in Jonathan Homer’s webinar, showed that the Russians had penetrated a combustion turbine gas plant. CT plants are usually fairly large, so most industry observers wouldn’t consider one to be just an “insignificant plant” – the phrase DHS had used to describe the single plant that was penetrated by the Russians. Of course, a CT plant would also never be mistaken for “just two wind turbines”.

In other words, the one piece of documentary evidence contradicted both of the stories that DHS had told so far, as they struggled mightily (but unsuccessfully) to walk back the main content of Jonathan Homer’s presentation.

From that day on, I believed Rebecca and we became good friends, although we only met once in person - at the 2019 RSA Conference. I was devastated to read in the WSJ just before Christmas of 2023 that she had passed away. I strongly recommend you read the WSJ obituary on her. She had a very remarkable career and took the time to really understand the electric power industry. The last piece of hers that I read was one of a series  in 2021 about the disastrous pricing  decisions made by the Texas Public Utilities Commission and ERCOT (the Texas grid operator) at the height of the crisis early in the morning of February 15, 2021. As always, it was well researched and thought out.

There is a lot more to the story of the Russians and the US power grid in the next couple of years (2019 and 2020). While I hope to write a full blog post (or even two) about those events soon, I want to point out three highlights, as well as the lesson that I think can be learned from all of this:

1. On January 10, 2019, Rebecca and Rob Barry of the WSJ published a journalistic tour de force: a very well-researched article on how the Russians had penetrated a number of electric utilities (five were named, but there were clearly more victims) using supply chain attacks (you can read my post about the article here). What was quite interesting about this was that the Russians didn’t seem to have been trying to cause the Big One: a cascading outage like the one that caused the 2003 Northeast Blackout (I had always assumed this was their Holy Grail). Thus, they didn’t have to limit themselves to trying to penetrate vendors of Energy Management Systems (EMS), which are presumably the only vendors that would have access to these systems.  

Instead, the Russians penetrated an excavating company, a technical magazine publisher, a small construction company, some small power generation companies, and other small vendors. Their ultimate targets will still control systems operated by electric utilities, but now the utilities targeted were small ones. None of these utilities would by themselves have been able to cause a cascading grid outage if compromised, but most of them served military bases. Clearly, the Russians were positioning themselves so they could disrupt a US military response in case of war.  

2. A while after the July/August 2018 blowup caused by Rebecca’s article, it became clear to me that the various statements by DHS trying to walk back Jonathan Homer’s presentation were probably not just the result of individuals trying to “defend DHS” as best they could (although Mr. Homer remained in the employ of DHS for at least another year). Instead, an order must have come down from the highest level of the federal government to the effect that a) Homer’s story needed to be discredited, and b) DHS should stop investigating Russian cyber attackers, as they had been doing for several years. It’s very likely the penalty for disobeying the order was being immediately fired.

Indeed, it seems that order was very successful. Before July 2018, I had read a lot of news stories about what DHS had learned about Russian cyberattacks on the grid; after July 2018, those stories ceased. In fact, at a meeting in conjunction with the 2019 RSA Conference, I asked a Director in DHS, who had been discussing their cyber capabilities, about Jonathan Homer’s presentation and the multiple walkbacks that DHS had attempted. When I brought this up, he turned white as a sheet and stammered off some incoherent statements, including "We don't do technical investigations." Really, DHS (this was still before CISA was formed) isn’t capable of doing technical investigations?

3. However, there were a huge number of news articles and blog posts (including mine) starting in December 2020 about by far the most successful targeted Russian attacks on the US federal government (as well as many other organizations, both US-based and international): the SolarWinds supply chain attacks.

What fascinated me most about those attacks was the amazing degree of organization and planning that went into the attack on the SolarWinds development environment; here is my post on that topic. In fact, Microsoft stated that probably 1,000 Russian engineers worked on the attack (which took a year and a half and only ended when the attack was discovered by chance by FireEye). But here’s the big question: With such a massive effort underway in the Russian hacker community, why didn’t the US have any clue that this was going on until the Russians had been helping themselves to secrets they found inside US government and private networks for more than six months?

Although it took me a while to realize it, I now see that the answer to that question is simple: If you tell your investigators not to investigate one country anymore on pain of losing their job, you’ll end up with what you wanted – no investigations. Given how destructive the SolarWinds attacks were and the fact that we’ll never know how many secrets walked out the door into Putin’s hands during those attacks, we have all paid (and will continue to pay) a big price for that policy. I wish we all, including me, had listened to Rebecca in 2018. 

My blog is more popular than ever, but I need more than popularity to keep it going. I’ve been told I should either accept advertising or charge a subscription fee, or both. However, neither of those options appeals to me. It would be great if everyone who appreciates my posts could donate a $20-$25 “subscription fee” once a year (of course, I welcome larger amounts as well!). Will you do that today? 

If you would like to comment on what you have read here, I would love to hear from you. Please email me at tom@tomalrich.com.


[i] If you run into a paywall on this or any other WSJ link in this post, send me an email and I’ll send the PDF of the article to you.

No comments:

Post a Comment