I’ve stated multiple times that I
see just about zero likelihood of a cyberattack bringing down the US power grid
(for example, in this
post and this
one). The reasons I’ve pointed to recently have always been related to the
technical infeasibility of such an attack succeeding (although I should say “impossibility”,
since I think it would be literally impossible to bring down the entire US grid
with a cyberattack, no matter how massive).
But I recently remembered another
reason for this opinion, which I stated in a post
in 2020: Any cyberattack that succeeded in bringing down (or even substantially
disabling) the US grid (actually grids, since there are three of them) would
have to be carried out by a nation-state, or perhaps a huge and very
sophisticated terrorist organization, like al Qaeda probably was before 9/11.
Since there’s currently no such terrorist organization, the perpetrator would
have to be a nation-state, like China, Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
If such an attack were carried out
(whether successful or not), it would be considered an act of war, almost on
the scale of Pearl Harbor. And if the US declared war on the perpetrator, there’s
no way to know how far that might go – including a nuclear exchange.
Why would a nation-state, no
matter what degree of hatred their leaders or people harbored for the US, risk possible
total destruction, simply in order to cause a lot of damage to the US economy (and
perhaps kill a lot of Americans) through an unprovoked attack? And don’t give
me the “madman” story. Neither Vladimir Putin nor Kim Jong-Un, or any other
world leader, is that mad that they’d risk destroying their life and the lives
of their family members and friends.
If you want to worry about
something that could cause a grid disaster, worry about an EMP attack or a massive
solar storm (one did bring down the Quebec grid in 1989, and if the Carrington Event of 1859
had occurred today, that might well have brought down the entire US grid). Or
worry about a pandemic. What would happen if one of those occurred, and the US
response was so badly managed that a million people died? I agree that the idea
is far-fetched, but I’d still say it’s a lot more likely than a cyberattack
taking down the US grid.
Any opinions expressed in this
blog post are strictly mine and are not necessarily shared by any of the
clients of Tom Alrich LLC. If you would
like to comment on what you have read here, I would love to hear from you.
Please email me at tom@tomalrich.com.
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