* With just
one very sensible condition, of course.
By the way, do you remember that, two weeks and a day ago, the daily
White House briefing featured the good news – confirmed by Saint
Anthony himself! - that a report
from University of Washington said the growth in Covid-19 cases would turn
negative by today. Of course, both Dr. Fauci and Trump himself didn’t make a
big deal of the fact that the report assumed a lot more social distancing would
be put in the two weeks before today. But after all, why scare people, when you
have a stock market you need to fool at least until November (good luck with
that, of course)?
This may astound you, but even though April 15 isn’t over yet, on April
14 the growth in total reported cases didn’t turn around; the daily rate of
increase stayed at 5%, where it’s been for a few days. However, the daily
deaths number did turn around, although in the wrong direction. The total
deaths number jumped by 2,420 from April 13 (vs. about a 1,500 increase the
previous day); so daily deaths increased at a 10% rate, vs. a 7% rate on the 13th.
And I don’t think this number includes Gov. Cuomo’s announcement
yesterday that New York had decided to count thousands of people who had almost
certainly died of Covid-19, but who never even made it into the hospital, where
they would have been tested.
So it’s with heavy heart that I have to state that it seems Saint
Anthony once more contributed to a deception of the American public, even
though he of course did this with the best of intentions – as he seems to have
done all along, every time he’s praised the administration’s anti-pandemic
efforts even though he knew without doubt that “praiseworthy” wasn’t at all an
appropriate description of those efforts.
Since Saint Anthony doesn’t want to resign no matter how many insults
Trump throws his way and no matter how many right-wing trolls give him death
threats (which is why he’s now under 24-hour protection), I suggest the press
and the nation ignore anything more that he says. From now on, just follow the
numbers of deaths, since – as long as they include obvious Covid-19 cases that
weren’t tested before the person died, whether or not they do today – they are
much more reliable than the total case numbers, which are constrained by the
ongoing huge shortage of testing capacity.
This means the numbers in Section II below are the ones to look at,
since they’re all based on total deaths numbers. I call your attention to the
weekly numbers in red, and especially the fact that it now looks like April’s
total Covid-19 deaths per day will be about 2,900. When I wrote this
post less than a month ago, I was saying that 1,000 deaths a day would be
hell on Earth in April, vs. 2,000 deaths a day in May. Now it seems likely
we’ll be at 3,000 deaths a day in April, and I don’t even want to tell you what
the number will be in May (to be quite honest, I haven’t even calculated it
myself). So I guess we’re in Hell Plus™ now.
Of course, unconstrained by Dr. Fauci’s statements that trying to
reopen the economy (not that it’s totally closed now) in the near future is
bound to be a bad thing, Trump continues to give his happy talk about reopening
soon. Why, he’s even named a 20-person task force to oversee the reopening –
although according to the NY Times, it seems he didn’t bother to ask a
number of them beforehand if they might be interested in serving on this august
group of future fall guys…ahem, I mean trusted advisors. Oh well, stuff happens.
But I have a startling announcement to make: I now agree with President
Trump! Against the advice of all the experts, I think the economy could and
should be opened as soon as possible. But there are a few technical conditions
that will need to be in place for that to happen.
In yesterday’s post,
I laid out three things that Trump ought to be doing now, instead of planning
for reopening. The first two – making testing freely available and putting
together the capability to do massive contract tracing – need to be in place in
order for any reopening to succeed. Of course, since Trump always trusts
the experts (why, he himself has said he does!) and since the experts all agree
these two things need to be in place (actually, in the Times yesterday,
there was an interesting proposal from the Nobel-winning economist Paul Romer
that, if there were a really massive increase in testing, and the government
could test 7% of the entire US population every week, contract tracing wouldn’t
be needed on such a huge scale), I can safely assume J that these will be in place when reopening comes. Although I regret to
say that Trump has backed off his certainty on Monday that he has the sole
power to order reopening, no matter what the states think. Yesterday, he said that
of course he doesn’t have that power – it’s up to the governors. Don’t hold
your breath waiting for him to explain why he suddenly changed his mind.
However, there’s another condition that needs to be in place, in order
for the opening to be compatible with the idea that all Americans have equal
rights: No American should be compelled to go back to work. This might seem a
surprising thing to say, since I doubt anyone believes the police or National
Guard are going to go to workers’ homes and force them to return to work at
gunpoint. But there’s another way that people will be forced to go to work: If
they and their families need the income so much that they have no other choice
but to risk their life in order to receive a paycheck.
Of course, there’s temporary support available now for people who aren’t
working, although unemployment insurance is only available to people who are
laid off, not those who don’t want to work because they literally fear for
their lives. But let’s say the economy completely opens by the end of May
(probably the earliest that the need for massive testing could be met, anyway).
Will that support still be in place then, and more importantly will a worker be
able to make the decision then not to go back to work, because he/she knows
that this support will continue for say the next 6-12 months at the least?
Otherwise, they’ll often feel they have no choice but to go back to their job,
even though it involves working at close quarters with a lot of people who
might be infected.
In other words, workers will feel compelled to go back to work, even
though there’s no gun to their head. Those of us who can work quite well from
home will of course never have to make a terrible decision like this – but just
about every American worker who can’t work at home will have to make it when
the economy reopens.
How do we fix this? Of course, the answer is to put in place a
guarantee of basic income[i]
for at least 18 months (i.e. until the earliest date that a vaccine might be widely
available, since that’s the one thing that will allow employers to say with
complete sincerity that their workplaces are safe). This won’t eliminate the
problem of people being forced to go back to work, since anyone with large
debts or children nearing college age will often feel they need to take the
chance and return to work. This will be especially true if they can receive
their old pay level – or probably more, since employers will presumably try to
make it as attractive as possible for people to return to work. But at least it
will reduce the number of cases where people will literally have no money available
for food or anything else (like copays under their Obamacare policy), and will
be driven back to work by the starkest of choices.
So some sort of 18-month universal basic income guarantee needs to be
in place before the economy could really restart, although even then there will
be a lot of workers that feel economically coerced to return to work, even
though they would prefer not to take the risk. Now, I’ll admit this is going to
pose a problem for a total restart of the economy, since it means there will
probably be a big shortage of workers willing to gamble with their lives. How
can we make up that shortage?
I have a plan for that, too (and I’m not even Elizabeth Warren!): As
you know, a lot of people of all political stripes - but especially those with
the most to lose from a prolonged economic shutdown, namely the wealthier part
of our society and their proponents in media outlets like the Wall
Street Journal, have been calling vociferously for the economy to reopen.
And you can bet that, when the reopening order finally comes, those in charge
of companies that need their workers back will try every means possible to
persuade them to return – sometimes with higher wages, sometimes with hints
about how their failure to return immediately will damage their career
prospects, etc.
I suggest that all of these people, to prove that it really is safe for
the workers to return, be required to work a certain amount of time every week –
say 20 hours – on the “front lines”. Fast food executives should spend 20 hours
a week fulfilling orders in the cramped quarters of one of their franchise’s
kitchens. Factory owners should spend 20 hours a week working
shoulder-to-shoulder with “regular” workers on the plant floor. Talk show hosts who have been screaming for a reopening should take
orders in a restaurant, or serve as a greeter at Wal-Mart.
And since I’m feeling generous, I think these people should be paid the
regular wage for those 20 hours, on top of whatever they make from their day
job, since presumably their normal responsibilities won’t be decreased by
having this extra responsibility.
Another benefit of this proposal is that, being on the front lines, the
executives are much more likely to hear the other workers’ health concerns
(which often – sad, but true – don’t normally trickle up to the executive
suites), and order fixes quickly.
I think this is a winning proposal for all. Workers who don’t feel
comfortable returning to work yet will know their family won’t starve because they
chose not to return. Workers who do want to return will presumably feel that
the additional incentives offered for their return outweigh whatever health concerns
they still have. And most importantly, those who are so insistently clamoring
for an economic reopening will know that they’re not just spouting empty words
and advocating that other people do something they wouldn’t dream of doing
themselves. They’ll have the satisfaction of understanding what it really means
when we say all US citizens have equal rights – including the right not to be
forced to put their lives in danger because of pure economic hardship.
As Mr. Trump recently said in another context, what’s there to lose?
Now, the
Numbers
All numbers below are based on yesterday’s reported figures of total
confirmed cases, total deaths and total recoveries, published on
Worldometers.info. I’m happy to send my spreadsheet that calculates all of
these to anyone who wants to check the calculations, although they follow the
assumptions described below.
Note on
April 15: This is the second day that I’ve used my new estimate of the case
mortality rate: 7%, vs. the 4% estimate I was using. I did this as a result of
a little spreadsheet “experiment”
I did on Sunday, which seemed to show that 7% was a much better estimate. But
if you think that’s too high, I’ll just point you to the actual case mortality
rate we have so far (discussed at the end of this post): It’s 39% as of today.
So if you think 7% is unrealistic (and it probably is), then it would be best
to go with 39%. That will require multiplying all of my “set in stone”
estimates of deaths (not the other death projections) by 5 ½ times! I hope that
makes you feel better.
I. Numbers
based on total cases, actual and projected
Total US confirmed cases: 614,246
Increase in cases since previous day: 27,073 (vs. 26,740 increase yesterday)
Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 5% (vs. 5% yesterday)
Percent increase in cases since 3 days previous: 15% (vs. 17%
yesterday)
“Set in
stone” US deaths* over course of pandemic: 158,708
*This number
assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total
cases grow by 17% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases);
c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, today;
d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days, because of the lockdown, but they
continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th day; e)
testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the
case mortality rate = 7%.
Projected
as of April 22 (7 days from today):
These
numbers answer the question: What would happen if we wait seven days to totally
lock down the US, based on the assumptions below (which frankly are themselves
wildly optimistic).
Total expected
cases*: 893,017 (vs. 897,597 expected yesterday)
Total expected
deaths set in stone** over course of pandemic: 230,046 (vs. 270,455
expected yesterday)
* The
expected cases number assumes that total cases grow by 15% every three days (=
yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases), for the next 7 days.
**This
number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases;
b) Total cases grow by 15% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in
cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential
travel, on April 22; d) New cases drop to zero 28 days later because of the
lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th
day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark;
and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.
Projected
as of April 29 (14 days from today):
These
numbers answer the question: What would happen if we wait 14 days to totally
lock down the US, based on the assumptions below (which frankly are themselves very
optimistic)?
Total
expected cases*: 1,235,468 (vs. 1,287,346 expected yesterday)
Total deaths
set in stone** over course of pandemic: 319,219 (vs. 393,285
projected yesterday)
* The
expected cases number assumes that total cases grow by 15% for the next 7 days
(= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases).
**This
number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases;
b) Total cases grow by 15% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in
cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential
travel, on April 29; d) New cases drop to zero 28 days later, because of the
lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th
day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark;
and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.
Date
on which 500,000 total pandemic deaths will be set in stone: May 3
Date
on which 1 million total pandemic deaths will be set in stone: May 17
Number
of deaths set in stone on April 30: 433,164
II. Numbers
based on total deaths, reported and projected
(All of the
numbers below are based on reported deaths, not reported cases and an assumed
case mortality rate of 7%. The reported cases number is the basis for the set
in stone deaths numbers above; however, there’s general agreement that reported
cases are some fraction of actual cases. So the projections below are going to
be much more accurate estimates of deaths than the ones above, at least in the
shorter term)
Total US
deaths as of yesterday: 26,064
Increase in
deaths since previous day: (vs. 1,529 yesterday)
Percent
increase in deaths since previous day: 10% (vs. 7% yesterday)
Yesterday’s
3-day rate of increase in total deaths: 27% (vs. 26% reported yesterday)
Date on which the number of new deaths
on that day will probably exceed the toll of Sept. 11: April 20
Actual number of deaths during week
ending April 11 (Saturday): 12,126
Projected* number of deaths during
week ending April 18 (Saturday): 14,924 (i.e. >2,000
per day)
Projected* number of deaths during
week ending April 25 (Saturday): 25,574 (i.e. >3,600
per day)
Projected* number of deaths during
week ending May 2 (Saturday): 47,424 (i.e. >6,700
per day)
Projected* number of deaths during
month of April: 86,819 (i.e. almost 2,900 per day)
Projected* number of deaths during
month of May: You don’t even want to see this figure.
* Projected deaths for each day equals
the previous day’s deaths, grown by yesterday’s 3-day percentage growth rate in
new deaths, which as of today is 27%. The weekly number is the sum of the
projected deaths for the 7-day period. Note that my estimated case mortality
rate doesn’t affect these projections at all.
III. Reported case mortality rate so far in
the pandemic in the US:
These numbers are also unaffected by the
increase in assumed case mortality rate to 7%.
Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 36,948
Total Deaths as of yesterday: 23,644
Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases
(=deaths + recoveries): 40% (vs. 39%
yesterday) Let’s
be clear. This means that, of all the coronavirus cases that have been closed
so far in the US, 40% of them have resulted in death (compare that to the 7%
mortality rate I’ve now using to calculate the “set in stone” total pandemic
deaths numbers). Of course, this number will come down as time goes on and more
cases are closed in which the victim recovered. But this number has gone down
and up since Worldometers started publishing the recovery rate on March 26
(when it was 41%), and on about half the days, it’s gone up; there is still no
sign of a downward trend. I’d say it’s more likely my 7% mortality rate will
turn out to be too low, after the pandemic’s over and all of the bodies have
been counted, than it will be too high.
[i] Of course,
there’s a sizable worldwide movement to provide everyone a Universal Basic
Income now and in the future, which was already getting a lot of attention even
before the pandemic. My college roommate and longtime friend, Dr. Michael Howard
of the University of Maine, has been one of the leading proponents of this idea
for at least 20 years.
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