To summarize what’s
changed from yesterday: First, total reported cases grew by a 3-day rate
of 26%, vs. 28% reported yesterday. Is this cause for celebration? Well, it
leads to a projection that, if we wait seven days and then do a total lockdown,
the total pandemic deaths will be “only” 362,790, based on the very
conservative assumptions below (which are frankly just about unattainable). Does
that mean it’s time to break out the champagne? Only if we don’t remember that
the Administration (plus Saint Anthony Fauci, Deborah “There is no shortage of
ventilators” Birx, and virtually all of the media) still clings to the idea
that 240,000 is the maximum number of pandemic deaths we’ll have.
362,000 is a wild
underestimate of total pandemic deaths in the US, since epidemiologists say the
true number of cases is 5-10 times the reported one. But even assuming total
cases were only underreported by a factor of two, we would end up with twice as
many (725,000) pandemic deaths if a total lockdown were imposed seven days from
today. Also, I compute total pandemic deaths by multiplying reported cases by a
4% case mortality rate – and that rate will only be accurately known after the
pandemic is over. However, it’s almost certain the 4% number is low, perhaps
drastically so (see Section III below).
Second, total deaths grew by a 46% 3-day rate
yesterday, vs. 53% based on the previous day’s numbers. Now this is a
cause for celebration, right? Only if you ignore the fact that there’s been no
trend in that number for the past six days (the rate was 48% several days ago).
But let’s say the growth rate in daily new deaths stays at 46% (which of course
still means the total deaths number will more than double every two
days, given compounding). Then, we still end up with the weekly death numbers
shown below, and the projection of total April deaths of 230,702 (vs. the actual number of 4,053 for March).
This means that average daily deaths in April will be about 7,700 – and since
we had 2,000 yesterday, this of course means the daily numbers will be much
higher than 7,700 later in the month. In fact, I now show April 23 as the first
day where daily deaths exceed 10,000. Compare this with the fact that Italy’s total
deaths so far were around 19,000 yesterday, and their new cases are now
declining each day.
And – grasping at
straws here – now assume that the actual deaths number just grows at 23% (half the
above rate) from today on. In that case, total deaths for April are “only”
107,764, which still works out to 3,600 deaths per day in April – i.e. more
deaths than on 9/11, except happening every day. And we don’t get above
10,000 deaths per day (i.e. more than three 9/11’s) until May 2. Wow! We’ve
gained a whole 9 days before we reach that dire milestone! Now there’s
cause for celebration, right?
As I’ve pointed
out repeatedly, once you have exponential growth (which means the addition to
the number every period equals a positive percentage of the number itself),
drops in the growth rate only push back the inevitable appalling numbers in
time - they don’t eliminate them. You have to literally stop growth in new
cases cold if you want to actually beat the virus.
And in this
regard, I can’t believe that seemingly rational people (of all political
stripes) are now waving the white flag and saying we can’t really expect to
beat the virus completely until a) it infects enough of the population that the
rest of us have “herd immunity”, or b) a vaccine is developed and produced in
quantities large enough to vaccinate the entire US population – or at least all
of them who don’t have immunity.
Let’s look at each
of these ideas. Regarding herd immunity, epidemiologists estimate that will
kick in when 40-70% of the population has been infected – let’s say it’s 50%
for ease of calculation. The US population is about 320 million, which means 160
million would be infected. And let’s use a final case mortality rate estimate
of two percent, which is almost certainly an underestimate – perhaps a huge
underestimate (see Section III below) – of the final number. This means a
minimum 3.2 million will die. So if we want to wait for herd immunity to save
us, we have to be prepared for at least that number of deaths.
How about a
vaccine? We really can’t assume one will be developed and tested for 18 months.
But that’s not the end of it. Manufacturing it in the quantities required will
take a lot of production capacity, which we certainly don’t have sitting around
now. If we want to be ready to produce the vaccine within say a month of
developing it, we need to at least have the facilities lined up, staffed, etc.
And we need to start planning for that now. Anybody want to bet whether the
current Administration is even thinking about this?....I didn’t think so.
This means that
herd immunity is what will finally “save” us – and of course, I’m thinking
there of the famous statement by some military officer during the Vietnam war: “We
had to destroy the village in order to save it.” If “salvation” is losing 3.2
million people at a minimum, what’s the alternative?
Of course, the
alternative is doing as much of a total lockdown of the country as we can now,
with grounding of all travel beyond a short range, except of course for various
essential activities. We’ve come part way to doing that already, which is why
the rates of increase in total reported cases and total deaths have slowed
markedly since 2-3 weeks ago. But given the current stagnation in the rate of
change in total deaths (and the total unreliability of the cases number – the only
question is how huge an underestimate it is of the actual number), we certainly
can’t count on much further drop in those two numbers, without more measures
than we’re already taking.
So what could
justify losing 3.2 million people? Of course, the argument made by many of both
political persuasions is that “The cure is worse than the disease.” Meaning
that not having to lock the economy down much longer than April 30 – vs.
waiting until at least May 31, which is what Bill Gates is advocating – would be
worth the price of 3.2 million deaths (or, more specifically, 3 million deaths,
since even if we did a total lockdown today and left it in place through the
end of May, we would still end up with close to 200,000 deaths. This is my “set
in stone” figure for today).
Of course, the people
who make this argument – including Holman Jenkins of the Wall Street Journal,
in an op-ed today – aren’t even trying to estimate the total deaths. And they’re
also leaving out one very crucial fact: Those 3 million deaths will be
almost entirely of people who have to leave home to work. This certainly
doesn’t include Holman Jenkins, and it doesn’t include me, either.
So what Mr.
Jenkins and others are actually saying (including obviously one D.J. Trump, to
the extent he understands the implications of anything he says) is: “Working
people, you need to take a pretty bad gamble with your lives, in order that
those of us who survive will have a better life in the long run. Hell, maybe we’ll
even give you a few extra dollars per hour for your sacrifice. And give you a
real nice funeral to boot!” Such a deal.
But the real
question is: Will the workers take that deal? If the government decides to play
hard ball, and leaves them with the choice between a) working and taking the
chance of dying from Covid-19, and b) staying home but starving because all of
the aid spigots will be cut off, maybe they will take it.
But I have a
better idea: Let’s make sure people have enough to live on, even if the economy
is totally shut down for three months. And don’t give me some c___ about the
dangers of inflation ten years from now. Alternatively, maybe we can get Mr.
Jenkins, and all who support this idea, to volunteer to man the factories and
service counters, while everyone who cares more about their life sits at home.
I’m sure we’ll get enough volunteers to staff one or two McDonald’s.
All numbers below
are based on yesterday’s reported figures of total confirmed cases, total
deaths and total recoveries, published on Worldometers.info. I’m happy to send
my spreadsheet that calculates all of these to anyone who wants to check the
calculations, although they follow the assumptions described below.
Date
on which the number of new deaths on that day will probably exceed the
toll of Sept. 11: April 13
Projected*
number of deaths during week ending April 11 (Saturday): 13,139
Projected*
number of deaths during week ending April 18 (Saturday): 30,323
Projected*
number of deaths during week ending April 25 (Saturday): 72,416
Projected*
number of deaths during week ending May 2 (Saturday): 180,721
Projected* number of deaths during month of April: 230,702
Number
of new deaths on May 1 alone: 29,186 (was
57,474 yesterday)
* Projected deaths for each day = previous
day’s deaths grown by yesterday’s 3-day percentage growth rate in new deaths –
equal to 46%. The weekly number is the sum of the projected deaths for
the 7-day period.
I. Numbers based on total cases, actual and
projected
Total US confirmed
cases: 503,177
Increase in cases
since previous day: 34,282 (vs. 33,735 increase yesterday)
Percent increase
in cases since yesterday: 7% (vs. 8% yesterday)
Percent increase
in cases since 3 days previous: 26% (vs. 28% yesterday)
“Set in stone” US deaths* over course of
pandemic: 175,555 (based on 4% case mortality rate)
*This number assumes a) Reported cases are a
fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 26% into the
future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive
lockdown of at least 60 days, with prohibition of all non-essential travel,
today; d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days because of the lockdown, but they continue
to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th day; e) testing
is widely available by the 60-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 4%.
To see what would happen with a 6% mortality
rate, multiply each set in stone deaths number by 1.5. For 8%, double it. For
comparison, Italy’s current case mortality rate (deaths so far divided by cases
so far) is currently 12.77%, and their daily case growth rate is declining.
Projected as of April 18 (7 days from today):
These numbers answer the question: What would
happen if we wait seven days to totally lock down the US, based on the
assumptions below (which frankly are themselves wildly optimistic).
Total expected cases*: 937,966 (vs. 912,597 expected yesterday)
Total expected deaths set in stone** over
course of pandemic: 322,276 (vs. 362,790 expected yesterday)
* The expected cases number assumes that
total cases grow by 26% for the next 7 days (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in
cases).
*This number assumes a) Reported cases are a
fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 26% into the
future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive
lockdown of at least 60 days, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, on
April 18; d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days because of the lockdown, but
they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th
day; e) testing is widely available by the 60-day mark; and f) the case
mortality rate = 4%.
To see what would happen with a 6% mortality
rate, multiply each set in stone deaths number by 1.5. For 8%, double it. For
comparison, Italy’s current case mortality rate (deaths so far divided by cases
so far) is currently 12.77%, and their daily case growth rate is declining.
Projected as of April 25 (14 days from today):
These numbers answer the question: What would
happen if we wait 14 days to totally lock down the US, based on the assumptions
below (which frankly are themselves very optimistic)?
Total expected cases*: 1,597,988 (vs. 1,611,111 projected yesterday)
Total deaths set in stone* over course of pandemic:
557,529 (vs. 649,928 projected yesterday)
* The expected cases number assumes that
total cases grow by 26% for the next 7 days (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in
cases).
*This number assumes a) Reported cases are a
fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 26% into the
future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown
of at least 60 days, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, on April 18;
d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days because of the lockdown, but they continue
to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28th day; e) testing
is widely available by the 60-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 4%.
To see what would happen with a 6% mortality
rate, multiply each set in stone deaths number by 1.5. For 8%, double it. For
comparison, Italy’s current case mortality rate (deaths so far divided by cases
so far) is currently 12.77%, and their daily case growth rate is declining.
Date on which 500,000 deaths will be set
in stone: April 24
Date on which 1 million total pandemic
deaths will be set in stone: May 3
Number of deaths set in stone on April
30: 812,287
II. Numbers based on total deaths, reported
and projected
(All of the numbers below are based on reported
deaths, not reported cases and an assumed case mortality rate of 4% - which
itself is probably low. The case number is some fraction of the actual cases.
So the projections below are going to be much more accurate estimates than the
ones above)
Total US deaths as of yesterday: 18,761
Increase in deaths since previous day: 2,064
(vs. 1,900 yesterday)
Percent increase in deaths since previous
day: 12% (vs. 13% yesterday)
Yesterday’s 3-day rate of increase in total
deaths: 46% (vs. 53% reported yesterday)
III.
Reported case mortality rate so far in the pandemic in the US:
These
numbers are also unaffected by the error I made.
Total
Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 27,314
Total
Deaths as of yesterday: 18,761
Deaths
so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 41% (vs. 39% yesterday) Let’s be
clear. This means that, of all the coronavirus cases that have been closed so
far in the US, 39% of them have resulted in death (compare that to the 4%
mortality rate I’ve been using to calculate total pandemic deaths, based on total
cases). Of course, this number will come down as time goes on and more cases
are closed in which the victim recovered. But it’s only come down by about 4
percentage points since Worldometers started publishing the recovery rate on
March 26, and on about half the days, it’s gone up; there is still no sign of a
downward trend. I’d say it’s much more likely my 4% mortality rate will turn
out to be too low, after the pandemic’s over and all of the bodies have been
counted, than it will be too high.
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