This man is going to kill us all!

  

So it’s one, two, three, what are we fighting for?

Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn. Next stop is Viet Nam!

And it’s five, six, seven, open them pearly gates.

There ain’t no time to wonder why – Whoopee! – We’re all gonna die!

- Country Joe and the Fish, “Fixin’ to die rag”

First, the Numbers

As you may know, I’ve been projecting total Covid-19 cases (which I project by growing yesterday’s reported case number by yesterday’s 3-day rate of increase in that number) since close to the beginning of this blog a little more than four weeks ago (although it literally feels like four months, if not four years). I have then (and still am, of course) combined that with a mortality rate estimate to come up with a “set in stone” minimum projection of total pandemic deaths. This is the minimum total projected deaths over the course of the pandemic, based on that day’s reported case number and some very restrictive (and frankly, very unrealistic) assumptions about what will happen from that day on (you can read these below)

But it’s only been in about the last two weeks that I’ve projected total reported deaths, by growing yesterday’s reported deaths by the three-day growth rate of daily reported deaths. Given the well-documented problems with availability of test kits and especially testing supplies, this means total deaths is a much more reliable indicator of the course of the coronavirus in the US than are my projections of total cases and set in stone pandemic deaths.

In the last few days, I’ve started looking at projections by week (created just by summing new deaths over every week) and by month, and I just extended them through May. I’ve listed these below. I’m going to do these regularly from now on. Remember, these are based on nothing more than growing the reported daily deaths number by the most recent three-day growth rate.

Just look at the numbers in red below, including 1.2 million deaths in May, meaning about 42,000 deaths every day in May. Now tell me with a straight face that we ought to give Mr. Trump some more time to figure out how he can get us out of this mess, especially when his only “remedy” – unlocking the economy - will only make total deaths much larger.

I heard Country Joe and the Fish perform the “Fixin’ to die rag” in a Philadelphia park one evening in 1967 (and they also performed it at Woodstock. It was recorded in the great movie about that gathering). The song is filled with sarcastic outrage that American families were sending their sons off to be killed in Vietnam, when Lyndon Johnson and all his generals couldn’t even give a clear answer about why we were there in the first place.

I am now filled with anger that so many Americans are so complacent about the absolute disaster that’s about to befall them, and even more the fact that the team at the top is so totally unwilling to learn from the mistakes they – and other countries, too - have made, and still won’t admit to simple facts that are causing enormous problems for us, like the huge supply chain problems in getting tests and the supplies needed for those tests.

What’s the worst case I see? When somewhere between 40% and 70% of the population has been infected (and this will happen this summer, long before a vaccine will be available), herd immunity will kick in. Let’s say it does this when 50% of the population has been infected. How many deaths does that mean? I’m using 7% as my case mortality rate estimate, but as the numbers at the very end of this post show, the most educated guess we can give on this number is 37%, since that is the actual number so far in the US (Italy’s and France’s numbers are in this same ballpark. Others like Spain aren’t that far behind).

So how many deaths in this worst case scenario? 160 million times 37%, or about 59 million. Ironically, that’s a little more than a thousand times the number of Americans that died in the Vietnam war, of all causes. Back then, we thought that was a pretty big deal.

Reported Covid-19 deaths during week ending:

March 7: 16 (2 deaths/day)

March 14: 38 (138% increase, 5 deaths/day)

March 21: 244 (542% increase, 35 deaths/day)

March 28: 1,928 (690% increase, 275 deaths/day)

April 4: 6,225 (23% increase, 889 deaths/day)

April 11: 12,126 (95% increase, 1,732 deaths/day. That is more than the total deaths on the Titanic, every day)

Projected Covid-19 deaths during week ending:

April 18: 16,280 (34% increase, 2,326 deaths/day)

April 25: 28,772 (77% increase, 4,110 deaths/day. In other words, 1,100 more deaths than on 9/11, every day)

Total deaths for April: 97,118 (3,237 per day. In other words, more people will die of Covid-19 in April than died of all causes in US wars since WWII. Daily deaths will exceed the 9/11 toll).

May 2: 54,797 (90% increase, 7,828 deaths per day)

May 9: 99,131 (80% increase, 14,162 deaths per day)

May 16: 171,039 (73% increase, 24,434 deaths per day)

May 23: 325,751 (90% increase, 46,536 deaths per day)

May 30: 589,299 (81% increase, 84,186 deaths per day)

Total deaths for May: 1,293,335 (41,720 deaths per day)

Projected deaths for each day equals the previous day’s deaths, grown by yesterday’s 3-day percentage growth rate in new deaths, which as of today is 27%. The weekly number is the sum of the projected deaths for the 7-day period. Note that my estimated case mortality rate doesn’t affect these projections at all.

I. Numbers based on total cases, actual and projected

Total US confirmed cases: 644,348

Increase in cases since previous day: 30,102 (vs. 27,073 increase yesterday)

Percent increase in cases since yesterday: 5% (vs. 5% yesterday)

Percent increase in cases since 3 days previous: 15% (vs. 15% yesterday)

“Set in stone” US deaths over course of pandemic:  166,281

This number assumes a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 17% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, today; d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days, because of the lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28^th day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.

Date on which 500,000 total pandemic deaths will be set in stone: May 9  

Number of deaths set in stone on April 30: 334,450  

These numbers assume a) Reported cases are a fairly accurate estimate of total cases; b) Total cases grow by 15% into the future (= yesterday’s 3-day growth rate in cases); c) We impose a massive lockdown, with prohibition of all non-essential travel, on that day; d) New cases drop to zero in 28 days, because of the lockdown, but they continue to grow at the current projected rate up to the 28^th day; e) testing and contract tracing are widely available by the 28-day mark; and f) the case mortality rate = 7%.

II. Numbers based on total deaths, reported and projected

(All of the numbers below are based on reported deaths, not reported cases. The reported cases number is the basis for the set in stone deaths numbers above; however, there’s general agreement that reported cases are some fraction of actual cases. So the projections below are going to be much more accurate estimates of deaths than the ones above, at least in the shorter term)

Total US deaths as of yesterday: 28,554

Increase in deaths since previous day: 2,490 (vs. 2,420 yesterday)

Percent increase in deaths since previous day: 10% (vs. 10% yesterday)

Yesterday’s 3-day rate of increase in total deaths: 29% (vs. 27% reported yesterday)

Date on which the number of new deaths on that day will probably exceed the toll of Sept. 11: April 17

III. Reported case mortality rate so far in the pandemic in the US:

Total Recoveries in US as of yesterday: 48,708

Total Deaths as of yesterday: 28,554

Deaths so far as percentage of closed cases (=deaths + recoveries): 37% (vs. 40% yesterday) Let’s be clear. This means that, of all the coronavirus cases that have been closed so far in the US, 37% of them have resulted in death (compare that to the 7% mortality rate I’ve now using to calculate the “set in stone” total pandemic deaths numbers). Of course, this number will come down as time goes on and more cases are closed in which the victim recovered. But this number has gone down and up since Worldometers started publishing the recovery rate on March 26 (when it was 41%), and on about half the days, it’s gone up; there is still no sign of a downward trend. I’d say it’s more likely my 7% mortality rate will turn out to be too low after the pandemic’s over and all of the bodies have been counted, than it will be too high.